Investor Chris Camillo sits down with Vlad to break down one of the toughest lessons of his trading career: a high-conviction options bet on Restaurant Brands International (QSR), the parent company of Burger King, Popeyes and Tim Hortons.
Camillo explains why the Popeyes chicken sandwich craze and Burger King’s Impossible Whopper made the trade look like a can’t-miss earnings play—until Tim Hortons delivered its worst quarter ever and wiped out nearly 40% of his liquid net worth. He also reflects on the missed warning signs from a franchisee meeting in Orlando, Florida, and how that loss shaped his next major move: shorting the market during early COVID-19 using China reports, Google Translate and puts on airlines and casino stocks. From CNBC skepticism to pandemic-era winners like Peloton, Shopify, Amazon, Schwinn and Logitech, Camillo shares how social arbitrage, work-from-home trends and artificial intelligence continue to define modern investing.
Vlad opens up about a painful pandemic-era investing lesson: selling his $150,000 Restoration Hardware (RH) position after following Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, only to watch the stock surge as home buying and furniture demand exploded. Chris Camillo breaks down why “social arbitrage” and real-world observation can beat traditional Wall Street thinking, from RH’s boom to missed opportunities in Chewy, pets, Schwinn bicycles, and Michelle Obama’s famous J.Crew outfit during the Obama inauguration.
Camillo also explains how his company Ticker Tags tracked social data, tweets, brands, and consumer conversations for hedge funds and investment banks in Manhattan—while arguing that retail investors still have an edge by spotting trends on TikTok, comments, and everyday behavior before they appear in credit card data.